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  • "Aftershock is a superb exegesis of how our damaged economy is in for further difficulties. Since the authors hedge their predictions not at all, a second event in which they will have been proven correct will lead to a very special stature."

    Stanley Goldstein , Founder , New York Hedge Fund Roundtable

  • "The fragility of today's economy demands that we, as investors, allocate our assets with more prudence and focus than ever before. The authors' prescience in their first book lends credence to their new warnings. This book deserves our attention."

    Robert Friedman , Former CFO , Goldman Sachs

Chapter 6 - Timing the Use of Leverage for Gold Purchases

Should You Buy Gold Now?


What a wild time it is for gold! Breaking new highs when the stock market is in trouble and the euro has fallen dramatically. It seems increasingly that it is de-coupling from other markets and becoming recognized as an independent investment alternative. No surprise that much of the gold buying recently has come from Europeans. Our long term outlook for gold couldn't be better. However, in the short term, we are still concerned that if there is a major pull back in commodities due to an economic slowdown or bubble popping in China, that gold could be pulled back down with it. Also, a major stock market decline of 2000 points or more could pull gold down, as it did in 2008.

Gold is clearly decoupling. Oil, a major commodity, fell as has copper and gold isn't feeling the effects. However, we remain concerned that if there is a big pullback in commodities of 30% or more, gold, despite moves toward de-coupling, will be pulled back. So, short term, if you feel the need to buy gold, in two years you won't be disappointed. Fear in financial markets and poor returns on alternative investments drives gold's price and those fundamental factors will keep pushing up the price of gold. But, be prepared for a potential pullback in the short term for the reasons we just mentioned. Also, short term, fear in the financial markets can quickly fade until the next financial crisis.

In terms of specific gold buying options, as we said in the book, you can buy gold though an ETF, which is just like buying stocks. For this type of gold purchase, we recommend you take a look at our money management division, Absolute Investment Management, since they will help you allocate the proper amount of gold to your portfolio and will be able to help on exact timing. Please call Mike Lebowitz at 301-907-6794 or go to the website www.absolute-im.com. We only work on a managed account basis which means you have 100% transparency into your account and how we are managing it on a daily basis. This will be a major bull market and you don't want to miss out. On the other hand, you don't want to get caught in a possible downturn in the next 3 - 9 months.

You can also buy gold as bullion from your local coin dealer or from many outlets online, including www.kitco.com or www.bullionvault.com. We would also suggest you look at a gold depositary as another option for holding gold bullion. We have worked with Monex in New port Beach, California and have had good success. Monex buys the gold for you and holds it in a depository account in HSBC bank in New York in your name. It is not kept in Monex's or HSBC's name. It is kept in your name and you receive a holding certificate in your name for the gold. However, you can still leverage the gold, an advantage of an ETF. You can also request the actual gold bullion to be shipped to you at any time.